>From mkaiser@lepmlk.gsfc.nasa.gov Wed Jan 13 22:41:05 1999 Date: Wed, 13 Jan 1999 08:44:00 -0500 (EST) From: Mike Kaiser Message-Id: <199901131344.IAA01443@lepmlk.gsfc.nasa.gov> To: solarII@lepmlk.gsfc.nasa.gov Subject: Lonely type II, Jan 11 X-Sun-Charset: US-ASCII Status: RO WAVES detected a weak, but well defined F-H pair drifting between 4.5 and 3.2 MHz (fundamental) between 22:03 and 22:12 on Jan 11. The only thing reported in the daily event reports is a C class flare peaking at 21:48-- just one of a series of similar C flares which produced nothing for us. We feel lonely. Does anyone know the location of these flares? At much lower frequencies, the single tone type II reported from Jan 9-10 continues on, reaching ~30 kHz by 22:00. Local plasma frequency at that time was starting to rise, so 'impact' with the local plasma frequency should occur early on Jan 12. I don't see any obvious shocks in the ACE data. We don't know which of the two Jan 8 events (Zdenka's #28 and #29) this is associated with, but the ISPM and STOA codes both predicted that the first of these, #28 at 03 hrs, should have died by this time, so we're probably looking at the second event, #29 at 10:29 on the 8th. However, if our type II is a continuation of event #29, then the speed is much lower than 600 km/sec -- more like 425 or 450 like we said in the previous report. Cheers MLK ........................ Date: Wed, 13 Jan 1999 09:15:39 -0500 (EST) From: Mike Kaiser Message-Id: <199901131415.JAA01507@lepmlk.gsfc.nasa.gov> To: solarII@lepmlk.gsfc.nasa.gov Subject: Re: Lonely type II, Jan 11 X-Sun-Charset: US-ASCII Status: RO Message from Gopal concerning the lonely WAVES event. Mike, The C Class flare of ineterest to the type II occurred as an LDE from the large scale region at S30W05 (approx) on Jan 11 and included AR 8431. There is a nice post-eruption arcade and therefore it is very likey a CME occurred from this region. This event was well imaged by Yohkoh and will get you some images later on. Gopal ........................ >From mkaiser@lepmlk.gsfc.nasa.gov Wed Jan 13 23:39:42 1999 Date: Wed, 13 Jan 1999 09:42:34 -0500 (EST) From: Mike Kaiser Message-Id: <199901131442.JAA01627@lepmlk.gsfc.nasa.gov> To: solarII@lepmlk.gsfc.nasa.gov Subject: Jan 11 type II -- fearless prediciton X-Sun-Charset: US-ASCII Status: RO I get a pretty nice fit using a lift off time of 21:20 and a speed of 600 km/sec. So, Taking Gopal's info that this event was near the central meridian, and since we can tell for certain the fundamental and harmonic, we can predict that this shock should arrive at Earth sometime after 18:00 on Jan 14. Good way to start off the new year. MLK ----- End Included Message -----