March 31, 2001  1700 UT

SOLAR ALERT - MAJOR   (to International List and selected others)

          HELIOSYNOPTICS,    BOULDER, COLORADO

CLASS-X10 PROTON FLARE IMMINENT (NEXT 24-48 HRS)
MORE DANGEROUS THAN MARCH 29 EVENT

  Region 9393 (N18 W40 )has re-energized with accelerated clockwise
rotation of the intense delta-configuration in the center of the region.
This was the site of the X1.7 flare of March 29. The spots in the delta
have grown larger and more intense, and the separation between the
delta-pair of sunspots has decreased rapidly. This produces a very intense
gradient across the polarity inversion line, and the rotation deposits an
enormous amount of energy into the twisted magnetic fields above the spots.

  There has been movement and coalescence among the spots west of the
delta, and some minor growth in spots at the eastern end of this large spot
complex. Filament formation above the spots has resumed, but the filaments
do not look pre-eruptive at this time. This situation could change rapidly.

  The magnitude of this next flare may be an order of magnitude greater
than the March 29 event, exceeding X10. The location of the region is
optimum for the Earth receiving the full dose of high-energy particles, and
they surely will come from this event.

  The geomagnetic storm from this next flare may be just as intense as the
storm now in progress that resulted from the March 29 flare. Brilliant
aurora was reported today from sites over all the U.S. that had clear
skies, including locations as far south as Tucson.

This is bad news for the power industry.

--
Patrick S. McIntosh
HelioSynoptics and
McIntosh Squared Graphics
3885 Paseo del Prado
Boulder, CO 80301-1527
303-444-5880  FAX: 303-440-0102